Add to Technorati Favorites Ideal Advice: The Self-Help Search for Truth and Balance: The Black Swan, The Economy, Predictions, and Random Events

Tuesday, May 8, 2007

The Black Swan, The Economy, Predictions, and Random Events

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/2007-recession-blindside-happy-talk-economists/story.aspx?guid=%7B711FF308%2D1A2E%2D41D3%2D87BE%2D4DFD5218A833%7D&dist=TNMostRead

A fantastic article that you must read... But in short: Breaking news is useless. This makes Journalists and Economists who propagate this news of little value for they cannot predict much based on the information they have today. What does affect the world in meaningful ways are random, practically unexpected events (e.g. 9/11, the creation of Google, etc.). Currently most news makers and economists say the economy is strong and a recession is out of the question, but could a coming recession be one of these seemingly unexpected events???

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